Do you often wonder which of your stock picks will be the big winner? The honest answer may surprise you. Nobody knows. Not you. Not experts. Not anyone. This article shows real examples of newsletter stocks that rose 75%, 200%, and even 300%, yet looked boring or risky at the time.
It also shares losses and why risk control matters. The key lesson is simple. Do not try to guess the best idea. Follow a proven system. Stay diversified. Control risk. Stick to clear rules. If you want better long term results with less stress, this article can help you.
Estimated Reading time: 5 minutes
Which Investment Ideas Perform Best? The Truth Nobody Expects
Which companies recommended in the newsletter will perform best?
Must you buy all the recommended companies, or can you pick and choose?
These are great questions newsletter subscribers often ask. Perhaps questions you have asked yourself. Here is the simple truth. Nobody knows which ideas will perform best. Not you. Not me. Not anyone.
Forecasting Is Hopeless
You have probably noticed that forecasting the stock market is hopeless. The media always manages to find someone who is "sure" exactly what will happen. They may even have a good-sounding argument.
But the simple truth is, no one knows what will happen.
Research Proves It
Numerous research studies have proved that humans simply cannot forecast, even if their lives depended on it. So-called experts do not do any better. In fact, they do worse than amateur forecasters.
This means neither you nor I can say what the market will do, or which companies will perform best.
Real Examples from The Quant Value Newsletter
Let me show you examples of companies recommended in the Quant Value newsletter.
These were some of the best-performing companies. But I list them here to show you how unlikely even these large gains looked at the time we recommended them.
Celestica Inc. – Up 317.5% in One Year - May 2023 to May 2024
Would you have thought a large Canadian hardware platform and supply chain electronics manufacturer would increase by over three times in one year?
Techpoint, Inc. – Up 106.2% in 10 Months - April 2024 to February 2025
Cheap companies often become takeover targets. This happened to Techpoint, which more than doubled in less than a year because of a takeover offer by ASMedia.
AlzChem Group AG – Up 165.6% in One Year - April 2024 to April 2025
AlzChem went up over one and a half times in a year. This sleepy chemical company unexpectedly profited hugely from the war and defence spending in Europe after the Ukraine invasion.
Eckert & Ziegler – Up 75.0% in Six Months - October 2018 to March 2019
This sleepy Germany-based provider of nuclear isotope technology for medical, scientific, and industrial use increased 75% in six months.
Reply SpA – Up 269% in Three Years - November 2011 to November 2014
Reply SpA, an Italy-based IT company, went up nearly three times over three years. That is around 90% per year.
Not only was this a great return, but it also shows that a company can remain in the newsletter's portfolio for years. I had doubts about the company when it was recommended. It had accounts receivable of more than 400 days. That was more than its yearly sales. An Italian friend later mentioned that this is not unusual for Italian companies.
MGI Coutier – Up 239% in Two Years - May 2013 to June 2015
This French automotive equipment supplier also remained in the portfolio for more than a year. It went up just under 120% per year. MGI Coutier's share price was at a five-year high when we recommended it. Its sales in the first quarter fell 6% due to the sluggish European economy. This made it an unlikely candidate to increase much.
When Things Do Not Work Out
Things do not always work out. If someone tells you about a strategy that always works, be very careful. Think Madoff.
Afren PLC – Down 75% in One Year - January 2014 to January 2015
Afren is an example of an idea that did not work out. The share price fell 75% due to fraud. After this loss and a lot of research, we introduced the trailing stop loss system for the newsletter in March 2015.
More Recent Examples Still in the Portfolio
Here are more recent examples.
Strabag SE – Up 209.0% in Five Years - Since June 2021. That is equivalent to 44.8% per year.
Would you have thought a €10 billion construction company would perform so well and stay in the portfolio over five years?
Cementir Holding N.V. – Up 98.6% Since October 2024
This boring €2 billion Italian cement company nearly doubled in less than a year.
AEP Plantations Plc – Up 68.7% Since August 2024
Would you have thought a palm oil supplier would increase this much in five months?
Karrie International Holdings – Up 201.8% Since April 2024
Karrie unexpectedly got huge orders due to the AI infrastructure boom. Its stock price tripled.
Emeco Holdings Limited – Up 73.0% Since May 2024
Renting out heavy open-cast mining equipment in Australia can also perform well, as Emeco is showing.
What is Important for You to Should Notice
These companies performed great despite being in industries that were not exciting. They had all kinds of problems and uncertainties when they were recommended.
The Best Thing You Can Do
So, what can you do?
The best is to simply follow a proven investment system. This applies to any good investment strategy. Not just the one we follow in the newsletters.
You can of course follow your own investment strategy. But it must be a good strategy. One that has been proven to work over decades in up and down markets.
What A Good System Looks Like
A proven investment system should have clear rules.
Here is what we follow in the Quant Value newsletter:
- Do not buy when markets are falling. Follow the 200-day simple moving average rule.
- Invest in a diversified portfolio of undervalued quality companies. The ones the newsletter's investment model finds for you.
- Keep each investment small, from 2% to 4% of your total stock portfolio.
- Limit your losses through a trailing stop loss system.
- Sell after a year if the company is not in your investment model.
The Key to Your Success
The key is to stick to your system. Do not try to pick and choose which ideas will perform best. Nobody can do this successfully over the long term. Not even the experts.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
1. Can I pick only the investment ideas I like, or should I buy all of them?
It is tempting to pick the ideas that “feel” best. But the truth is, you do not know which ones will perform best. No one does. Many of the biggest newsletter winners looked boring or risky at the start. If you pick and choose, you are guessing. A better approach is to follow the full system and buy a diversified group of ideas. This spreads your risk and gives you a fair chance to own the big winners. Discipline beats instinct over time.
2. Why is forecasting which stock will perform best so difficult?
Because markets are complex and driven by many forces. Even experts with strong arguments get it wrong. Research shows that professionals do not forecast better than amateurs. That is why trying to predict the next big winner is a losing game. Instead of forecasting, focus on a proven system. You cannot control the outcome of one stock, but you can control your process.
3. How can boring companies produce such high returns?
Many top performers did not look exciting. Some were chemical firms, cement companies, or equipment renters. At the time of recommendation, they had problems and uncertainty. Yet they delivered gains of 100%, 200%, and more. The lesson is simple. Great returns often come from companies that look average or dull. Do not chase excitement. Follow value, quality, and momentum signals instead.
4. What should I do when an investment falls sharply?
Losses are part of investing. Anyone who promises a system that always works should worry you. Fraud and poor judgement can happen, as seen in cases where stocks fell 75%. That is why risk control is vital. A trailing stop loss helps protect your capital. It forces you to sell when a position drops too much. This keeps one mistake from destroying your portfolio. Small losses are manageable, large losses are not.
5. What does a good investment system look like?
A good system has clear rules, exactly like the rules we follow in the Quant Value investment newsletter. For example, only buy when the market is above its 200-day moving average. Invest in undervalued quality companies. Keep each position small, around 2% to 4% of your portfolio. Use a trailing stop-loss to limit losses. Review positions yearly and sell if they no longer meet your criteria. These rules remove emotion and create structure. Structure builds confidence and long-term success.
6. Why is diversification so important in this strategy?
Because you do not know which stock will be the big winner. In the examples, some stocks doubled in months. Others took years to triple. Some failed. Diversification ensures you own enough ideas to capture the winners while limiting damage from losers. Think of it as planting many seeds. You do not know which tree will grow tallest, but you give yourself many chances.
7. What is the real key to long-term investment success?
The key is simple but not easy. Stick to your system. Do not second-guess it based on fear or excitement. Do not try to outsmart it by predicting which stock will outperform. Over time, consistency wins. If your strategy is proven across many years and market cycles, trust it. Stay patient. Stay disciplined. That is how you build wealth with less stress and more confidence.
