In this post you will discover how a little-known German chemicals company turned into a 165% winner - picked by a system that finds undervalued, quality stocks with momentum.
You will see exactly why the stock qualified, what triggered its rise, and how a strict sell rule locked in gains. Most importantly, you will learn how to apply the same strategy to find hidden winners and protect against big losses. If you want to invest with confidence - without guessing - this story shows you how discipline beats prediction.
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
Case Study: How a Hidden German Chemical Company Delivered a 165% Gain
Sometimes the best returns from the most unexpected places.
In April 2024, our Quant Value Newsletter recommended a mid-sized speciality chemicals company in Germany: AlzChem Group AG.
At first glance, AlzChem looked like a classic Quant Value pick. It was attractively priced, profitable, and quietly growing, but overlooked by most investors.
This is why it qualified:
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Cheap: Price-to-Earnings of 10.8, Price-to-Free Cash Flow of 7.2.
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Quality: Profitable and expanding its high-margin Specialty Chemicals segment.
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Momentum: Its share price was trending upward, confirming positive momentum.
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Stable: Solid fundamentals with growing earnings and cash flows.
In short, it ticked all the boxes in our tested value and quality screens.
The Unexpected Twist
What no one could have predicted was just how perfectly AlzChem’s niche products would benefit from geopolitical events. AlzChem makes specialised chemicals, some of which are used by the defence industry. When the war in Ukraine intensified, European countries increased their defence budgets. Demand for AlzChem’s products quietly surged.
From April 2024 to April 2025, the stock price rose by 59.9% in 2024 and another 67.5% in early 2025. With dividends included, the total return was +165.6% in just one year.
On 1 April 2025, the newsletter recommended selling the stock at this significant profit because it no longer met the strict selection criteria.
Why This Matters for You
This case proves two things:
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A disciplined, systematic approach can uncover hidden winners.
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No one can predict exactly which stock will outperform—what matters is sticking to a proven system.
AlzChem was a simple, boring chemicals company on paper. Yet, it turned into a geopolitical winner.
Protecting Against the Unknown
Of course, not every newsletter idea works this well. No investor is right all the time. That is why we follow strict risk controls:
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We only buy when the market is above its 200-day moving average.
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We sell immediately if any stock drops more than 20% from its highest price (trailing stop-loss).
This keeps big losses small and lets winners like AlzChem run.
As of June 2025, investment ideas in the Quant Value Newsletter with gains of over 20% outnumbered losses of more than 20% by 3.4 to 1. To be exact:
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Only 76 ideas lost more than 20%.
This is not magic. It is discipline, data, and a proven process working for you.
Ready to see what hidden winners you could uncover next?
Stay disciplined. Trust the process. And let the system work for you.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
1. How do I find a hidden winner like AlzChem before everyone else does?
You do not need to predict winners. Instead, follow a proven system. AlzChem showed strong value, quality, and momentum signals. It had:
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A low P/E (10.8) and strong free cash flow
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Rising earnings and expanding margins
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An upward price trend
Use a quantitative screener to filter for these traits. Then let the system do the heavy lifting.
2. What if I miss the next big stock? Will I fall behind?
You do not need to catch every winner. In fact, trying to do so leads to stress and bad decisions. The key is this: let a portfolio of good stocks work over time. Some will fail. Some will soar. Like AlzChem, the big winners pull the whole portfolio up. Trust the process.
3. Why did you sell AlzChem after such a strong gain? Could it go even higher?
Yes, it might keep rising. But the stock no longer passed our strict filters. We do not guess. We follow clear rules:
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Sell when a stock drops 20% from its high (to cut losses)
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Sell when a stock no longer fits the strategy (to lock in gains)
This keeps emotions out of your decisions.
4. What protects me if a stock drops right after I buy it?
We use two key risk controls:
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Market filter: We only buy when markets are rising (above the 200-day average).
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Stop-loss rule: If a stock falls 20% from its peak, we sell.
These two rules help protect your money and reduce big losses.
5. What if geopolitical events change the game like they did for AlzChem?
You cannot predict global events. That is why you follow a disciplined system. AlzChem was not a “defence stock” on the surface. But it had strong fundamentals and momentum. When the unexpected happened, it was already positioned to benefit. That is the power of preparation over prediction.
6. Do you ever override the system based on gut feeling or news?
Never. Emotions hurt performance. If we had second-guessed AlzChem in early 2024, we might have missed the 165% gain. Our system is built to remove bias. It follows decades of data. You do better by sticking with it.
7. How do I know if this system is really working overall?
As of June 2025, the Quant Value Newsletter had:
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260 stocks up over 20%
- Only 76 stocks down more than 20%
That is a 3.4-to-1 win/loss ratio. This is not luck. It is the result of clear rules, tested strategies, and consistent discipline.
